US Presidential Election 2024: Kamala Harris takes lead over Donald Trump after debate; 61% chance of victory
After the presidential debate, Kamala Harris has increased her lead over Donald Trump in all but one of a dozen polls tracked by aggregator 538.
Harris’ advantage in the nationwide popular vote now ranges between 2 and 7 points, with most polls exceeding the usual 3.5-point margin of error, reports ABC News.
While Donald Trump could potentially lose the national popular vote and still secure the presidency through the Electoral College, 538’s latest analysis presents a challenging outlook for his campaign.
The aggregator now projects a 39 percent chance of Trump winning the Electoral College, while Kamala Harris’ chances are pegged at 61 percent. In 1,000 simulations run by 538, Harris emerged victorious 609 times, Trump 387 times, while in four cases there was no clear winner.
These surveys were conducted before the second alleged assassination attempt on Trump, an event that some MAGA media claims is not being covered enough by mainstream outlets. 538, owned by ABC News, is accused by Trump of colluding with Harris and twisting last week’s debate in his favor.
However, Nate Silver, founder of 538 and who now runs the Silver Bulletin blog, paints a different picture. His model gives Trump a 60 percent chance of winning and Harris a 38 percent chance.
Such rigged numbers are dubious, given that Hillary Clinton was projected to have a more than 90 percent chance of winning on the eve of the 2016 election. With both political sides accusing each other of manipulating surveys to claim victory in the event of a close election, many analysts are concerned about potential deadlock and violence on November 5.
Election Day results are usually known by late night, particularly if the result is close. Tensions might, however, increase in a close race where one or two states determine whether 270 Electoral College votes are cast, particularly if states like Pennsylvania experience delays in the counting of mail-in ballots. Vote preferences remained largely unchanged after the debate. The latest poll shows Harris ahead of Trump by 51-46% among all adults, 51-47% among registered voters and 52-46% among likely voters.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, former President Donald Trump repeated false claims that Chinese automakers are building huge factories in Mexico, the AP reported. During a visit to Michigan, he promised to impose a 200% tariff on any vehicles produced by these non-existent plants and imported into the US.
Trump also claimed in Flint that if Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris wins in November, the US auto industry will collapse as electric vehicle production shifts to China. In response, the Harris campaign released a statement from Michigan Senator Gary Peters, in which he argued that a second Trump term would devastate auto jobs and hand Michigan’s manufacturing leadership to China. Peters emphasized that Harris has a plan to bring high-quality manufacturing jobs back to the US and maintain Michigan’s global leadership in auto manufacturing.
